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3/4 (23 Votes)

The playoff push

Type: Latest Fantasy

10 December 2009 10:45 AM - Rafa Cervera

Every week through the season NFLUK.com's Fantasy Football expert Rafa Cervera will be on hand to help you with your Sky Sports / nfluk.com Fantasy Football squad. This week Rafa makes the case for selecting players whose teams are still in the hunt for playoff berths.

Brandon Jacobs, who had accounted for just three touchdowns in the previous 11 games, scored two against the Cowboys last Sunday, adding 133 total yards. There could be many reasons for Jacobs' performance, but the one that applies more to fantasy owners is that he was playing for the Giants life. A loss against Dallas would have put New York out of the playoff race: three games behind the Cowboys in the division and two out of the wild card hunt. Now, Tom Coughlin's squad holds the tie- breaker on Dallas and is only a game behind for the two NFC wild card spots.

Yes, we are in December, it is life or death for the NFL teams that are looking to make the playoffs. It is crunch time! And players have that extra motivation to deliver when this time of the year arrives.

Look at Chad Henne. The Dolphins quarterback threw for a career best 345 yards to lead his team to an upset over the Patriots (23-22) that kept Miami's playoff hopes alive. A defeat would have put the Fins three games behind the Pats in the division: a deficit impossible to overcome with four weeks to go and New England holding the edge in the tiebreaker. Now, Miami is breathing, being only a game behind New England.

And what about Antonio Gates! OK, he is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, but he had never surpassed 150 receiving yards in a game during his prolific seven-year career. With the Broncos' early win at Kansas City, the Chargers needed to defeat the Browns at Cleveland to maintain their first place in the division and stay tied with the Bengals in the fight for the second seed in the AFC. Gates came through, grabbing eight passes for 167 yards to lead San Diego to a 30-23 victory.

We can go back to Week 12's matchups and see many examples like the ones set by Jacobs, Henne and Gates. An important advice for fantasy owners: leave aside players of teams that will be playing for nothing in the following weeks and trust the ones which desperately need a win to stay in the playoff hunt, earn a postseason bye or secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Game by game breakdown:

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The weekly action starts again on Thursday night with the Steelers travelling to Cleveland with the mission of snapping their four-game losing streak. Remember to make all your changes before midnight Thursday. Talking about teams dying to win for maintaining their playoffs hopes, there will not be a club hungrier than Pittsburgh in Week 14. This would translate into huge fantasy numbers for QB Ben Roethlisberger ($3 million), and Santonio Holmes ($3 million), RB Rashard Mendenhall ($2 million), if he is recovered from an ankle injury, and a defense ($3 million) that was not able to force a single turnover last Sunday hosting the Raiders.

Buffalo at Kansas City: Two very inconsistent teams will face each other in Kansas City. There are no playoff implications in this one, so I would stay away from both. The Bill defense ($1 million) facing an offense that has given up the most sacks in the AFC (40), Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles ($2 million) against Buffalo's bottom-ranked run defense, and Kansas City's Ryan Sucop, who has the best matchup amongst $1 million kickers would be the only possible three fantasy choices.

New Orleans at Atlanta: After dodging a bullet at Washington, the Saints look in pretty good shape travelling to Atlanta to play against the banged-up Falcons. If Matt Ryan ($3 million) can't go at quarterback for the home-team, New Orleans' defense ($1 million) seems like a very reasonable choice. The Saints will manage to put points on the board. QB Drew Brees ($4 million) is always an expensive but solid option. On his receiveing corps, wideout Robert Meachem ($2 million) is delivering lately with 341 yards and six receiving touchdowns in the last five games.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay: Just like every year, without making too much noise, Thomas Jones ($3 million) is amongst the top NFL running backs. Jones, who ranks fifth in the league with 1,068 yards rushing, and a stingy defense ($1 million) are the main reasons why the Jets are still in playoff contention only a game behind the Patriots in the tough AFC East. Both, Jones and the defense have another great opportunity to deliver on Sunday as the Jets face at Tampa Bay the Buccaneers: a team that ranks last in the AFC at stopping the run and turned the ball over 5 times (5 interceptions thrown by rookie Josh Freeman) in their Sunday loss at Carolina.

Miami at Jacksonville: Two teams fighting for their lives will collide on Sunday in the AFC's battle of Florida. QB David Garrard ($2 million) has managed to keep the Jaguars in wild card contention. Although he is not getting the numbers of elite NFL quarterbacks, Garrard has proven to be a reliable choice for fantasy owners looking to save some money at the position. WR Mike Sims-Walker ($1 million) has been his main target this season, but his fantasy numbers are inconsistent. RB Maurice Jones-Drew ($4 million) will have an excellent chance to prove his importance for the Jaguars offense. The Dolphins can strike you on the ground, using workhorse Ricky Williams ($2 million), or through the air, where Chad Henne ($1 million) is throwing the ball better each week. WR Davone Bess ($2 million), who had 10 catches for 117 yards and a score in Sunday's win over New England, is definitely emerging as Henne's main target.

Carolina at New England: Tom Brady ($4 million) had a good fantasy outing at Miami, but the Patriots finished with a loss. Brady is not used to lose two games in a row, so expect him to come out on fire against Carolina, making sure New England remains at the top of the division. Brady will throw and Randy Moss ($3 million), who leads the NFL with 1,058 yards receiving, and Wes Welker ($3 million), who paces the league with 95 catches will continue delivering. Anyhow, expect Bill Belichick to use more of his running game with Laurence Maroney ($3 million) taking advantage of it. I would stay away from a Panthers squad which lost its playoff hopes late November losing back-to-back games with the Dolphins and Jets.

Denver at Indianapolis: Led by Elvis Dumervil (15 sacks), the Denver defense ($2 million) has been all over opposing quarterbacks during the whole season, but this time things look different as the Colts have given up the least amount of sacks (10) in the whole league. I would not go with any Broncos offensive players either, as the Indianapolis defense ($2 million) is not surrendering many fantasy points to opposing players lately. In the other side, we can always expect good dividends by Colts QB Peyton Manning ($4 million), who tops the NFL with 3,685 passing yards. Stars WR Reggie Wayne ($3 million) and TE Dallas Clark ($3 million) have been silent in their fantasy production in the last games, with young wide outs Pierre Garçon ($1 million) and Austin Collie ($1 million) as well as RB Joseph Addai ($3 million) taking advantage of the situation.

Cincinnati at Minnesota: This is really as exciting as a fantasy matchup can get. Both the Bengals and Vikings own two of the top NFL defenses against the run so, even though the game will be played on turf, let's bench Minnesota's Adrian Peterson ($4 million) as other running backs have better matchups in Week 14. The same goes for Cincinnati's Cedric Benson ($2 million). He is fully recovered, but running against "The Williams Wall" is almost impossible. We should expect a high-throwing game, with home-team QB Brett Favre ($3 million) and WR Sidney Rice ($2 million), who ranks fourth in the league with 1,036 yards receiving, benefiting from the occasion. Also, after the desert meltdown, expect the Vikings ($1 million) defense to come back strong generating turnovers and sacks.

Green Bay at Chicago: The Packers defense ($1 million) dominated the Bears offense in this season's opening week generating all kind of Chicago miscues. With Green Bay riding a hot streak and Chicago having all sorts of problems, there is no indication things would be different this time. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers ($3 million) has established himself as one of the most reliable fantasy players, and the same goes for K Mason Crosby ($2 million). Rodgers spreads the ball quite a lot, but lately Jermichael Finley ($1 million) is getting very involved in the Packs passing attack. The tight end led Green Bay in last Monday Night's win over the Ravens (27-14) with seven receptions 79 yards and two touchdowns.

Seattle at Houston: After three devastating division losses in a row, it might be already too late for the Texans. QB Matt Schaub ($2 million) and WR Andre Johnson ($3 million) continue to be solid fantasy choices, but their team is lacking a spark. On the other side, the Seahawks could get a lot from their young running back Justin Forsett ($1 million), but the club insists in handling the ball to Julies Jones ($3 million) most of the times. In summary, these two teams look out of the playoff picture...

Detroit at Baltimore: There is no better game to start the furious Ravens defense ($3 million) than this one, is there? Baltimore's RB Ray Rice ($3 million) would also be an excellent choice and even QB Joe Flacco ($3 million) will improve his numbers as the Ravens will battle to keep hope in this regular season in which they have lost many close games.

San Diego at Dallas: Do not get over impressed by the gigantic numbers posted last Sunday at the meadowland by QB Tony Romo ($3 million), who passed for 392 yards, and his triplets: TE Jason Witten ($3 million), who established a personal best with 156 receiving yards, and WRs Roy Williams ($3 million) and Miles Austin ($1 million), who joined efforts to total 16 grabs and three scores. If they Cowboys want to be back in the winning column Sunday hosting the Chargers, their running game must work. San Diego is 9-3, but its defense ranks below the 20th position in the league at stopping the run, so expect Felix Jones ($2 million), a true outsider this week, to come up with a couple of long runs. On the other hand, the Chargers will need to throw a lot to win, so bench LaDainian Tomlinson ($4 million) and make room in your team for QB Philip Rivers ($4 million) and TE Antonio Gates ($3 million) who should increase his low number of season touchdowns: four.

Washington at Oakland: After his amazing performance at Pittsburgh throwing three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull a huge upset, QB Bruce Gradkowski ($2 million) comes back to the California bay. He will have a tougher matchup this time, as the Redskins defense ($2 million) ranks amongst the top five in the NFL against the pass. Let's keep a close eye on him. With RB Clinton Portis placed on IR, Washington is relying more and more on QB Jason Campbell ($2 million), who has lived to high fantasy expectations in recent weeks.

St. Louis at Tennessee: Despite their loss at Indianapolis, the Titans are still alive, but they face a must-win situation hosting the weak Rams. This presents an excellent option to start almost the whole Tennessee squad, including QB Vince Young ($2 million), NFL's rushing leader Chris Johnson ($3 million), rookie WR Kenny Britt ($2 million) who has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games, K Rob Bironas ($2 million) and the Titans defense ($1 million).

Philadelphia at New York Giants: This is another huge home test for the Giants. A win would put New York in an excellent position in the competitive NFC East. The Eagles defense ($2 million) will represent more trouble for QB Eli Manning ($4 million). Giants WR Steve Smith ($2 million) is always reliable for his fantasy price. Philadelphia has been beaten up on offense, so do not expect this one to be a high-scoring game. Besides their defense, the Eagles best fantasy selections would be TE Brent Celek ($2 million) and K Dave Akers ($2 million), who has 111 points to rank second in the NFL in scoring (one behind Chargers K Nate Kaeding), but should be back at the top of the league after Sunday.

Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals will not only look to avenge the opening week home loss against the 49ers, but also to clinch their second division title in a row with a win. So expect the best from QB Kurt Warner ($4 million) and WRs Larry Fitzgerald ($4 million) and Anquan Boldin. If Adrian Peterson did not run on Arizona last Sunday, do not expect San Francisco's Frank Gore ($3 million) to do it. Do not expect either another big outing from 49ers QB Alex Smith ($2 million) and TE Vernon Davis ($2 million). At least on paper, Arizona seems too much for the young San Francisco squad.

My Team:

Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger ($3 million)

Running back: Chris Johnson ($3 million)

Running back: Thomas Jones ($3 million)

Wide receiver: Kenny Britt ($2 million)

Wide receiver: Robert Meachem ($2 million)

Tight end: Antonio Gates ($3 million)

Kicker: Ryan Succop ($1 million)

Team Defense: Minnesota Vikings ($1 million)

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