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Type: Latest Fantasy

16 December 2009 11:04 AM - Rafa Cervera

Every week through the season NFLUK.com's Fantasy Football expert Rafa Cervera will be on hand to help you with your Sky Sports / nfluk.com Fantasy Football squad. This week Rafa explains why you need to pick players with something to play for in the final weeks of the season.

It was fourth down and 18 yards to go at their own 12 yard line with 2:00 minutes to go for the Broncos on Sunday at Indianapolis. Denver had made a courageous come-from-behind try, but the Colts had sealed it with a 12-point lead. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall had already tied Terrell Owens' NFL record for receptions in a game with 20. So we all knew the throw was going to come his way. He ran a short rout to the middle and Kyle Orton dumped him the ball for a 7-yard gain. Marshall then did a lateral pass to an offensive lineman, who of course did not get the first down. The most important thing: the Broncos wide out had his 21st reception to break the NFL record.

The Colts also set two NFL marks in the game, winning their 22nd consecutive regular season contest in a row and becoming the team with the most wins in a decade reaching 114 to surpass the 113 victories achieved by the San Francisco 49ers in the 1990s.

Players like Marshall (200 receiving yards and 2 TDs from his 21 catches) and Colts quarterback Peyton Manning (4 TD passes) and TE Dallas Clark (3 TD receptions) posted huge fantasy figures, because the game also had important postseason implications. Indianapolis was fighting to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and Denver was trying to stay at the top of the AFC's wild card race.

December is clearly a month in which starting players of teams which are making a playoff push is very important. But also make sure you do not bench those players who are on pace for making history.

The best example of a player on his way to a big milestone can be found at Tennessee. Titans RB Chris Johnson leads the league with 1,626 rushing yards, averaging 125 yards per game. If Johnson maintains this pace, he would become the sixth NFL player to reach 2,000 yards in a season.

Others pushing for personal or league milestones or records include Colts Manning. He tops the NFL with 3,905 yards passing averaging 300 per contest. If he keeps the pace, he would reach 4,800 for the season, beating his season best of 4,557 set in 2004.

Patriots WR Wes Welker has become the first player this season to top 100 receptions. Welker has 105, leading his closest follower, Reggie Wayne by 18. If Welker keeps the pace, he would be second in the all-time list for catches in a season with 129 (still quite far from the 143: a record set by Colts Marvin Harrison in 2002).

Broncos DE Elvis Dumervil heads the NFL with 15 sacks. If he averages 2.5 per game remaining, he would reach 22.5 to tie the league's record established by Giants Michael Strahan in 2001, so be ready to start the Denver defense if Dumervil gets closer to the mark.

Game by game best fantasy matchups:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Colts and Jaguars go head-to-head on Thursday night. The Colts will try to get to 14-0, extending their NFL record for consecutive regular season wins. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew ($4 million) might have a tough time running against a Colts defense ($2 million) that limited the Broncos running offense to less than 100 yards. Jones-Drew is tied with Adrian Peterson for the NFL's lead with 12 touchdowns. Expect Manning ($4 million) to come out throwing big again. It is also time for WR Reggie Wayne ($3 million) to wake up after four consecutive weeks without reaching double digits in fantasy numbers.

Dallas at New Orleans: Great game for Saturday night with the Cowboys trying to snap their December woes and the Saints looking to go 14-0. QB Tony Romo ($3 million) has been throwing the ball well lately despite Dallas's consecutive losses. WR Miles Austin, a true bargain at $1 million, remains Romo's main target. If Atlanta's Chris Redman threw for 303 yards and Michael Jenkins accounted for 81 receiving and a touchdown against the Saints last Sunday, imagine what Romo and Austin could do to New Orleans. On the other side, QB Drew Brees ($4 million) should have another huge game. WRs Marques Colston ($3 million) and Robert Meachem ($2 million) are Brees' favorite targets, but do not rule out RB Reggie Bush ($3 million) who is getting more and more involved each week in the Saints' offense. Last Sunday at Atlanta, Bush had two scoring grabs.

Cleveland at Kansas City: This looks like the perfect scenario to start a Cleveland defense ($1 million) that recorded nine sacks last week facing Pittsburgh and will be up against a Chiefs offense that has given up the most sacks in the AFC (44) besides throwing 13 interceptions. On the other hand, the game seems excellent for Kansas City's RB Jamaal Charles ($2 million), who enjoyed a big week Sunday against the Buffalo, despite the Chiefs loss, and will face a Browns defense that ranks 28th in the NFL at stopping the run.

Houston at St. Louis: Every fantasy owner welcomes the chance that his players get when facing St. Louis. WR Andre Johnson ($3 million) had a huge day last Sunday against Seattle. He might not get close to 200 yards receiving for the second week in a row, but he should be a very safe fantasy pick playing at St. Louis. The same goes for his quarterback, Matt Schaub, a big bargain at $2 million. Rams Steven Jackson ($4 million) keeps delivering every week, ranking second in the NFL with 1,279 yards rushing, but he has only scored four touchdowns this season and that should keep fantasy owners away from starting him.

Arizona at Detroit: The Cardinals will be travelling to Detroit looking to avenge Monday Night's loss at San Francisco. Good week to start QB Kurt Warner ($4 million), who should be throwing more often to WR Anquan Boldin ($3 million) if Larry Fitzgerald ($4 million) is not back from the knee injury sustained against the 49ers. Let's stay away from the Lions in this one. There are defenses with better matchups, but the Cardinals unit ($1 million) should definitely be considered.

Atlanta at New York Jets: New York's formula for their playoff push is very clear: defense and running the ball. Therefore RB Thomas Jones ($3 million) and the Jets D ($1 million) will be good choices for the three remaining weeks, especially if they play at home against a Falcons team that is really hurting on offense.

Miami at Tennessee: Miami's defensive numbers are not the best in the league against the run, but the Dolphins kept Jones-Drew pretty much in check last Sunday, so we can anticipate a tough outing for Titans RB Chris Johnson ($3 million). On Miami's side QB Chad Henne ($1 million) is playing better and better each week, clearly making a playoff push for his squad. Henne's most dangerous weapon is WR Davone Bess ($2 million).

San Francisco at Philadelphia: The Eagles defense ($2 million) will look to keep their team at the top of the tough NFC East. Philadelphia's D might give up points but always comes with good fantasy figures. It will be a tough outing for the 49ers, but TE Vernon Davis ($2 million), clearly a candidate for Fantasy Player of the Year, proves to deliver every week. QB Donovan McNabb ($4 million) will air the ball out and fully recovered WR DeSean Jackson ($3 million) and TE Brent Celek ($2 million) should take advantage of it. If you are not facing budget issues, Dave Akers ($2 million) is as reliable as any kicker in the league.

Chicago at Baltimore: Excellent occasion to start Ravens RB Ray Rice ($3 million) against a Bears defense that really has problems at stopping the run. Rice has scored fantasy double digits in every week but two this season, and he has another huge opportunity. The Bears will have problems moving the ball on Baltimore's ferocious defense, which might be expensive at $3 million but always provides an excellent fantasy choice.

New England at Buffalo: It will be a hard-nosed game in which the Pats will battle to prevail in the division with the Jets and Fins very close behind. Expect New England to be more practical than fancy with a lot of short balls thrown by QB Tom Brady ($4 million) to WR Wes Welker ($3 million), and RB Laurence Maroney ($3 million) carrying the ball more than he is used to against a Bills defense ($1 million) that ranks last in the league against the run. At this time of the year, choosing kickers playing in a place as cold as Buffalo would not be wise.

Oakland at Denver: Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski ($2 million) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game, which gives him 25% chances of playing. It is early in the week but we can conclude we will be seeing JaMarcus Rusell ($2 million) under center for Oakland at Denver. In Sunday's loss against Washington both Gradkowski and Russell played one half. Gradkowski was sacked twice, while Russell hit to the ground six times and threw an interception. So if Russell is the starter the occasion could not be bigger for a Broncos defensive unit ($2 million) led by NFL's sack leader Dumervil. Other players to be considered would clearly by Broncos WR Brandon Marshall ($3 million) who has an excellent opportunity to keep posting big numbers and Matt Prater: definitely the best fantasy choice this week amongst kickers whose value is $1 million.

Cincinnati at San Diego: The Chargers are almost playing perfectly, but their question mark is stopping the run, due to injuries suffered by their defensive linemen. If Cincinnati wants to have a chance, RB Cedric Benson ($2 million) needs to have a big day. With Cincinnati being tough against the run, QB Philip Rivers ($4 million) will throw as usual. To Rivers' favourite targets WR Vincent Jackson ($2 million) and TE Antonio Gates ($3 million), add WR Malcolm Floyd ($2 million): a favourite of the San Diego quarterback in the vertical passing game.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh: After Thursday's loss, it is now or never for the Steelers, who are starting to look for outside help to stay in the playoff hunt. The game looks like a perfect opportunity for a Steelers defense ($3 million) that ranks second in the league in sacks against the team has given up the most sacks in the NFL. Anyhow, Green Bay is protecting QB Aaron Rodgers ($3 million) better lately. The contest can really turn into a defensive battle, and there are many offensive players with better matchups and better weather in other games, so I would not be high in any offensive players from the Steelers or the Packers, including Rodgers, this week.

Tampa Bay at Seattle: Although two teams really struggling face each other in the Pacific North West, the Seahawks are way better off than the Buccaneers. The Seattle defense ($2 million) at home is always a good fantasy choice, and if Coach Mora gives him enough playing time, RB Justin Forsett ($1 million) should tear apart the very weak Tampa Bay run defense.

Minnesota at Carolina: This is a tricky game to predict as Carolina will be a tough opponent for the Vikings. If Adrian Peterson ($4 million) can run the ball, Minnesota should have an easy night, but if Carolina forces the Vikings to pass, their defense ($2 million) could come with a big fantasy game as they did at Arizona this season. The biggest problem for Carolina will be running at the Minnesota defense, so expect WR Steve Smith ($4 million) to come up with the numbers he used to post every week a couple of years ago.

New York Giants at Washington: The Redskins have gone from one of the easiest teams to face to one of the toughest. Their defense is improving each week both against the run and the pass, so I would stay away from any Giants players. On the other hand, QB Jason Campbell ($2 million) is solidifying his game as the season goes on with TE Fred Davis ($1 million) and RB Quinton Ganther ($1 million) really emerging as fantasy options.

My team:

Quarterback: Peyton Manning ($4 million)

Running back: Ray Rice ($3 million)

Running back: Cedric Benson ($2 million)

Wide receiver: Miles Austin ($1 million)

Wide receiver: Reggie Wayne ($3 million)

Tight end: Vernon Davis ($2 million)

Kicker: Matt Prater ($1 million)

Team Defense: Denver Broncos ($2 million)

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