Every week through the season NFLUK.com's Fantasy Football expert Rafa Cervera will be on hand to help you with your Sky Sports / nfluk.com Fantasy Football squad. This week Rafa names his all-star team for the 2009 Sky Sports / nfluk.com Fantasy season.
The Pro Bowl teams have been announced, so it is time for us to reveal our All-Fantasy team for the 2009 NFL season. We will select a squad within the $18 million salary cap set for our game. An important note for this week: some teams, like Indianapolis last week, will be resting key players thinking more about the playoffs than Week 17, make sure to avoid all of them, regardless of whether they have made our All-Fantasy team.
Quarterback: Drew Brees and Peyton Manning have registered MVP-like seasons, but in fantasy the reigning signal caller is without a doubt Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers ($3 million), who has collected more fantasy points (266) than any other player in his position. Besides being worth $3 million (one less than Manning and Brees), Rodgers' ability to run with the ball (314 yards, 4 touchdowns) has given him a fantasy edge over all other quarterbacks in the NFL. A special mention goes to our bargain pick at the position, Texans Matt Schaub ($2 million) who currently leads the NFL with a career best 4,467 passing yards.
Running backs: Titans Chris Johnson ($3 million), who is clearly our league MVP with the most overall fantasy points (306), and Vikings Adrian Peterson($4 million) have stolen the show. Johnson is only 128 yards away from becoming the sixth player in the history of the NFL to reach the 2,000 mark in a season. Of course, this has helped him pounding tonnes of fantasy points. Peterson and the Vikings have fallen lately, but his NFL-leading 17 touchdowns have kept Peterson at top of the list. Our special mention goes to Jaguars Maurice Jones-Drew, who ranks third amongst fantasy backs with 249 points.
Wide receivers: In the last three weeks, Texans Andre Johnson ($3 million) has separated himself from the rest of the pack, keeping Houston in playoff contention and collecting more fantasy points in the season (199) than any other wide out. Johnson also tops the NFL with 1,504 receiving yards. Randy Moss' ability to reach the end zone (heads NFL receivers with 13 touchdowns) have taking him to the second spot in fantasy production with 191 points. Three points behind comes Eagles DeSean Jackson. Anyhow at $4 million and $3 million respectively, Moss and Jackson are too expensive to meet our budget, so the second wide receiver spot in our All-Fantasy squad goes to Cowboys Miles Austin ($1 million). Despite playing very few snaps in the first four weeks of the season, Austin has recorded better numbers at Dallas than Terrell Owens' average in the past years. He ranks second amongst NFL wide receivers with 11 touchdowns grabs and has clearly been the Most Valuable Bargain Player of our fantasy season.
Tight ends: 49ers Vernon Davis ($2 million) might rank second amongst tight ends with 154 fantasy points, four behind Colts Dallas Clark, but Davis is $1 million cheaper, and that really counts in our game at a position that produces the second fewest points, only above kickers. Davis' 12 receiving touchdowns mean the second best production for a tight end in a season in the history of the NFL. He only trails Chargers Antonio Gates' 13 recorded in 2004. Gates has had a great late push for the Chargers, placing himself on third place in our fantasy tight end rankings (149 points), but like Clark he is worth $3 million.
Kickers: There is no way of making the $18 million budget if we do not have a $1 million kicker. This situation leaves out two players who have had exceptional seasons but whose price is $2 million: Philadelphia's David Akers, who leads the NFL in scoring with 139 points and San Diego's Nate Kaeding who comes second with 135. Our best pick at $1 million is clearly Broncos Matt Prater, who is tied for sixth in the NFL with 116 points and has only missed one field goal attempt in the last two months.
Team Defenses: Lately, the Eagles are definitely the best fantasy defense in the NFL. But Philadelphia's unit is $2 million, and the Saints defense ($1 million) which is still first in our fantasy rankings only two points above the Eagles (267-265) is cheap enough to allow us to stay in budget. Talking about late pushes, the Green Bay defense ($1 million) has been extraordinary in the last month, reaching the third place in the rankings with 240 fantasy points.
2009 All-Fantasy Team:
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers ($3 million)
Running back: Chris Johnson ($3 million)
Running back: Adrian Peterson ($4 million)
Wide receiver: Andre Johnson ($3 million)
Wide receiver: Miles Austin ($1 million)
Tight end: Vernon Davis ($2 million)
Kicker: Matt Prater ($1 million)
Team Defense: New Orleans Saints ($1 million)
Key fantasy matchups for Week 17:
I propose you to stay away from the following five meaningless games: San Francisco at St. Louis, Chicago at Detroit, Indianapolis at Buffalo, Atlanta at Tampa Bay and Washington at San Diego. Important note: all games will be played on Sunday, so take time to make your team, looking closely at injury reports and NFL news.
New Orleans at Carolina: After the Vikings' loss at Chicago this is another meaningless game, because the Saints have clinched home-field advantage in the NFC. New Orleans might rest key players, but in the Panthers side RB Jonathan Stewart, who is only worth $2 million, is on fire lately, performing well due to DeAngelo Williams' injury. Stewart surpassed the 200-yard rushing mark last week at the Meadowlands, so expect another huge outing from him on Sunday.
Tennessee at Seattle: This is the other Week 17 meaningless game that should be considered by fantasy owner. Why? Very simple: against a very down Seahawk team, Titans RB Chris Johnson ($3 million) has the opportunity to reach 2,000 yards rushing for the season. In fact, Johnson needs 234 rushing yards to break the NFL record set by Eric Dickerson (2,105) in 1984. I really see this as achievable if both Tennessee and Seattle keep playing the way they have done it in the past month.
Jacksonville at Cleveland: The Browns have played exceptional defense in December, but the Jaguars are still trying to sneak into the playoffs. The environment will not be easy and other running backs have better matchups than Maurice-Jones Drew ($4 million). Anyhow, the great Jaguars back must be taken in consideration when thinking about our Week 17 fantasy team.
Pittsburgh at Miami: The winner stays alive but still looking for help, the loser is eliminated. I really see this game as a hard-nose defensive battle which is the only way Miami can win it. If the Steelers break it loose they might get some aerial production, but QB Ben Roethlisberger ($3 million) has been very erratic lately, and I think starting him or any of his receivers will be very risky.
New York Giants at Minnesota: The Vikings have dropped three of their last four, but they are still undefeated at home. They need a win if they want to still have a shot at a first-round bye in the playoffs, so they have a lot to play for besides showing their fans they can still dream with a Super Bowl. The Minnesota defense ($1 million) has not delivered in the past games, but they are still one of the best units in the game. Look for RB Adrian Peterson ($4 million) to have a huge outing.
New England at Houston: Bill Belichick is no Jim Caldwell and you can expect the Patriots to come out to try to win this one. The Texans need the win more and they will be hungrier, so starting this week QB Matt Schaub ($2 million) and WR Andre Johnson ($3 million) really makes sense.
Philadelphia at Dallas: Nothing but a shootout can be expected at Dallas. While the winner could even get a first-round playoff bye, the loser will end up as a wild card which is not the best place to be in the NFC's postseason. Eagles QB Donovan McNabb ($4 million) will keep posting big numbers, as well as WR DeSean Jackson ($3 million) and TE Brent Celek ($2 million). On the Cowboys side, expect QB Tony Romo ($3 million) to keep playing well now that the December woes are gone, looking for WR Miles Austin ($1 million) and TE Jason Witten ($3 million).
Kansas City at Denver: The Broncos need a win and hope for either a Jets or Ravens loss to make it to the postseason. It does not look easy, but is a better scenario than the one other squads, such as Pittsburgh, Houston Jacksonville or Miami have. You can really expect Denver to destroy Kansas City. The Broncos defense ($2 million) would be an excellent pick and the same goes, once again, for 1-million kicker Matt Prater. On the other side of the ball, QB Kyle Orton ($2 million) provides a solid choice and the same goes for WR Brandon Marshall ($3 million).
Baltimore at Oakland: If you have money left when picking your defense, selecting Baltimore's ($3 million) would not be a bad choice at all. The Ravens will have a tough outing at a place where teams like Philadelphia have been defeated this season. Baltimore's RB Ray Rice ($3 million) should keep pounding big figures. If the Raiders shut down the running game, then it will be up to second-year QB Joe Flacco ($3 million), who is throwing to veteran TE Todd Heap ($2 million) in key situations.
Green Bay at Arizona: Who would have thought that the Cardinals could still be fighting to secure a first-round bye in the postseason with a Week 17 win? On the other hand, the Packers are already a lock as a wild card squad. The only problem for fantasy owners who want to start players from this game is that it is a late outing and the Cardinals destiny will probably already be decided when they take the field. If you believe the Giants can pull an upset at Minnesota, then it would make sense to start QB Kurt Warner ($4 million), WR Larry Fitzgerald ($4 million) and Co. If not, stay away from this one, as we could be seeing many second stringers on the field.
Cincinnati at New York Jets: The Sunday night matchup is not as interesting for the Bengals (being third or fourth in the AFC does not matter) than for a Jets team that will come out on fire, being in control of their own destiny. The Bengals play the run very well, so do not expect Thomas Jones ($3 million) and Co. to run freely. To make the playoffs New York will need to trust its defense ($1 million) and things could not be in better hands.
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